Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time
I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output – the output gap – satisfies Okun’s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.09.004